How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 1.3 from Zwolle, so Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.0 goals (xG 1.7-1.3), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 76%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Zwolle have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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