What to expect
We expect about 2.9 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 1.1 from Groningen, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 4.0 goals between the two (xG 2.8-1.1), landing about 74% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. We make it about 74% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
