How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Telstar (Draw No Bet) 76%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Telstar and 1.0 from Sparta Rotterdam, so Telstar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Telstar (Draw No Bet). Telstar are favoured here (xG 1.9-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Telstar defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Sparta Rotterdam win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed.