How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Pärnu JK Vaprus to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from FC Kuressaare and 1.3 from Pärnu JK Vaprus, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Pärnu JK Vaprus to win. Pärnu JK Vaprus shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.90, which works out at about 34 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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