How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Narva Trans to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Narva Trans and 1.3 from Tammeka, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Narva Trans to win. Narva Trans are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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