How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made FCI Levadia to win 45%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper but the numbers tip it a little towards Levadia. Both sides are expected to score just over a goal each, so we should see a tight contest with a couple of chances. There isn’t a huge gap, but the slight edge in the goal expectation suggests Levadia will have the edge.
Recent meetings aren’t listed, so we can only rely on the current expectations. The forecast of 1.2 goals for Kalju and 1.4 for Levadia shows a modest advantage for the visitors. That small difference is enough to hint that Levadia have been a bit sharper lately, even if the match could still be close.
Our pick is a straight win for FCI Levadia. We think they have about a 47 % chance to come out on top, which matches the numbers we see. The price of 1.54 is lower than what we feel the game is worth, meaning it’s a decent offer for a side that looks a little stronger.
For this to go wrong, Kalju would need to surprise us with a stronger defence or a quick goal that changes the flow. If they manage to keep a clean sheet and score first, the balance could swing. We still feel fairly confident in Levadia, but we know the margin is thin, so we keep the view moderate.
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