How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Flora Tallinn to win 42%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Flora Tallinn and 1.2 from Nõmme JK Kalju, so Flora Tallinn come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Flora Tallinn to win. Flora Tallinn are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.2), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.70, which works out at about 37 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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