How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Pärnu JK Vaprus to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Pärnu JK Vaprus and 1.4 from Nõmme United, so Pärnu JK Vaprus come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Pärnu JK Vaprus to win. Pärnu JK Vaprus are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.4), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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