What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Paide Linnameeskond and 1.6 from FCI Levadia, so FCI Levadia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Paide Linnameeskond come into this on two straight wins. FCI Levadia come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FCI Levadia to win. FCI Levadia shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Paide Linnameeskond only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 52%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
