What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Harju Jalgpallikool and 1.3 from Tammeka, so Harju Jalgpallikool come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Harju Jalgpallikool come into this on two straight wins. Tammeka come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Harju Jalgpallikool to win. Harju Jalgpallikool are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.3), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Tammeka a draw or better. We make it about 47% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
