How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Harju Jalgpallikool to win 44%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Harju Jalgpallikool and 1.3 from Tammeka, so Harju Jalgpallikool come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Harju Jalgpallikool to win. Harju Jalgpallikool are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.3), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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