Flora Tallinn v Tammeka: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Flora Tallinn (Draw No Bet) 79%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Flora Tallinn look the stronger side on paper. The goal expectations are 2.6 for them and 0.8 for Tammeka, which points to an open game with chances at both ends. The home team should have the edge, but the numbers also suggest there will be opportunities for the visitors.

Recent results show a sharp contrast. Flora Tallinn have lost their last two matches and in their last five league games they have only one win, one draw and three defeats. Tammeka, on the other hand, come in on three straight wins and have not dropped any points in their last three league outings. The pattern suggests Tammeka are confident, but Flora still hold the statistical advantage.

We back Flora Tallinn with a Draw No Bet. The price of 1.30 matches our reading of the game, and the draw-no-bet option removes the risk of a level result. If Flora win, the bet pays; if it ends level, the stake is returned, and only a loss for Flora would hurt us. Our confidence in this outcome is high, about 79 out of 100.

For the pick to go wrong, Flora would need to lose outright. That would require Tammeka to keep their recent winning form and break through a side that has struggled recently. While possible, we do not see this as likely, so we hold our view strongly.