Nõmme JK Kalju v FC Kuressaare prediction

What to expect

Nõmme JK Kalju host FC Kuressaare at home in the Meistriliiga on 1 November. Kalju sit fourth in the ten-team table with 57 points and a +24 goal difference, just one point behind leaders Flora Tallinn and four ahead of Tammeka. Kuressaare are down in ninth place with 36 points, a –18 goal difference and sitting in the relegation zone, only one point clear of Pärnu JK Vaprus and far ahead of Narva Trans. Both clubs played four days ago, so the match comes after a short turnaround for each side. The stakes are clear: Kalju look to keep pressure on the top three, while Kuressaare must pick up points to move out of the drop zone.

Kalju have come into this game on the back of two straight wins. In their last eight outings they have won four, drawn one and lost three. The most recent results were a 2-0 away win at Paide Linnameeskond, a 2-1 home victory over Flora Tallinn, a 3-0 defeat away at Nõmme United and a 2-2 draw away at Pärnu JK Vaprus. Earlier they lost 1-0 at home to Harju Jalgpallikool and beat Tammeka 3-1 away. In those eight games Kalju have scored 12 and let in 10, keeping two clean sheets but also failing to find the net twice. Four of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.

Kuressaare’s recent form is less encouraging. Over their last eight games they have recorded two wins, two draws and four defeats. Their latest results are a 1-1 away draw with Pärnu JK Vaprus, a 1-0 home loss to Paide Linnameeskond, a 2-0 home defeat by FCI Levadia and a 1-0 away win at Narva Trans. Before that they beat Flora Tallinn 2-0 at home and held Harju Jalgpallikool to a 0-0 draw away. The team have gone three games without a win. In the eight-game run they have scored five and conceded eleven, keeping three clean sheets but failing to score in four matches. Only two of those games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in two of them.

When the two clubs meet, Kalju have the clear historical edge. In the last five meetings Kalju have won four times, drawn once and never lost. Those games have averaged just under two goals. The most recent encounter was a 0-0 stalemate at Kuressaare on 19 July 2026. Given Kalju’s superior league position, better recent results and the fact they have scored twice in most of their recent games, we expect a low-scoring but decisive contest, with Kalju likely to find the net at least once while Kuressaare will struggle to break through.

Our pick is a Kalju win. The numbers suggest Kalju will score about two goals on average while Kuressaare manage less than one. The chance of Kalju scoring at all is high at 85 %, and they have a 60 % chance of scoring twice or more. Kuressaare’s chance to score is just over half, and only an 18 % chance of finding the net twice. We estimate a 66 % chance of Kalju taking all three points, and the price of 1.50 matches our view of the game. For the pick to go wrong Kuressaare would need to score first and then hold on, or Kalju would have to be shut out despite their recent attacking form. Otherwise the odds look good for a straightforward Kalju victory.