How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made FCI Levadia to win 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Nõmme United and 2.9 from FCI Levadia, so FCI Levadia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Nõmme United come into this on three straight wins. FCI Levadia come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FCI Levadia to win. FCI Levadia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.9), and we make them about 82% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
FCI Levadia have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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