How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Flora Tallinn to win 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks tilted toward Flora Tallinn. The numbers give them about two goals while Tammeka are expected to score less than one. That gap shows Flora are the stronger side, but the total of just over three goals suggests both teams will have chances. It should be an open match with chances at both ends.
Flora’s recent run hasn’t been great. In their last five league games, whether at home or away, they have only one win, one draw and three defeats. That recent dip does not change the fact that the numbers still rate them higher than Tammeka. The pattern tells us Flora can still pull through even when they have been shaky.
We pick Flora Tallinn to win. The price of 1.66 is longer than what we feel the game is worth, which is why we like it. Our own view gives Flora about a 71% chance of coming out on top. Backing them outright is the simplest way to play this fixture.
For the pick to go wrong, Flora would have to fall short of their expected two goals and Tammeka would need to score more than their 0.9 forecast. A defensive showing from Flora or a surprise burst from Tammeka could flip the result. We still hold our view strongly, but we know the recent three-loss streak means there is a small risk.
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