What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from AC Milan and 1.1 from Benfica, so AC Milan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AC Milan to win. AC Milan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Benfica a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 45%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
