Anderlecht v Lyon: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Lyon to win 44%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Anderlecht host Lyon in a Europa League tie on 16 September 2026. Both clubs sit on zero points after the opening round, with Anderlecht in third place out of 36 and Lyon in twenty-first. The table is tight; Bournemouth sit just above Anderlecht and Ararat Armenia just below, while Lillestrøm are a spot higher than Lyon and Marseille a spot lower. A win will move the victor clear of the teams that flank them and give a first step toward a European run.

Anderlecht come into this match on a two-game winning streak. Their last eight results show four wins, one draw and three defeats. Most recently they beat Mechelen 1-0 away and before that another 1-0 win over KV Mechelen away. At home they drew 0-0 with Genk and then beat Kortrijk 1-0. The only recent setbacks were a 3-0 loss to St Gilloise away and a 1-0 defeat to Beveren away. In those eight games they have scored six goals and let in ten, keeping four clean sheets but failing to find the net in three matches.

Lyon have been steadier in their recent form. Over their last eight games they have recorded four wins, two draws and two losses. Their most recent outing was a goalless draw with Paris FC away, before that a 3-1 home win over Auxerre and a 1-1 draw with Le Havre at home. Earlier they beat Toulouse 2-0 away, then suffered a 4-0 loss to Lens at home and a 2-1 defeat to Toulouse away. Lyon are unbeaten in their last four fixtures and have scored fourteen goals while conceding twelve. They have kept two clean sheets and have been shut out twice in this run.

When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest a modest scoring game. We expect about 1.2 goals for Anderlecht and 1.6 for Lyon, a total of roughly three goals. Both teams have a good chance of finding the net – 71 % for Anderlecht and 80 % for Lyon – but Lyon are the stronger side on these expectations. The recent patterns show Anderlecht often win by a single goal and keep a clean sheet, while Lyon have been involved in higher-scoring affairs, with five of their eight games featuring three or more goals and both teams scoring in five of those matches. This points to a game that could stay tight but with Lyon likely to edge it.

Our pick is Lyon to win. The price of 2.38 matches our own view of the match. Lyon’s recent unbeaten run and higher scoring average give them the edge, especially on the road. The price looks good for a side that should be able to score at least once and has a better chance of scoring twice. For this to go wrong, Anderlecht would need to keep a clean sheet and score twice, which has happened in only about a third of their games. If Lyon fail to find the net, the draw odds would become attractive, but the balance of chances still points to a Lyon victory.