Omonia Nicosia v Celta: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Celta to win 37%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Omonia Nicosia host Celta in a Europa League tie on 16 September 2026. Both clubs sit at the very bottom of the 36-team table, Omonia in 27th and Celta in 9th, each with zero points after no games have been played. The gap between them and the teams above or below is only a single place, so a win will lift either side out of the relegation-watch zone. The two sides look almost identical on the numbers – Omonia are expected to score 1.5 goals, Celta 1.6, and the total expectation is just over three goals. That suggests an open match with chances for both sides.

Omonia’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won three, drawn one and lost four. The most recent result was a goalless draw with Apollon Limassol at home. Before that they beat Aris Limassol 4-1 away, then fell 1-0 to Pafos FC at home. The run continued with a 3-1 loss away to HNK Rijeka, a 1-0 defeat at home to the same Croatian side and a 1-0 loss at home to Raków Częstochowa. Across those eight matches Omonia have scored eight goals and let in seven, keeping three clean sheets but failing to find the net in four games. Their last five home fixtures contain one win, one draw and three defeats, and they are coming into this game after only four days of rest.

Celta have been harder to beat but have struggled to win. In their last eight outings they have managed one win, five draws and two defeats. Their most recent two games were identical 1-1 draws with Málaga at home. Prior to that they drew 1-1 away at Getafe, then held Sociedad to a 0-0 stalemate on the road. At home they lost 2-0 to Athletic Bilbao and 2-1 to Osasuna. The Spaniards have scored five goals and conceded seven in this spell, keeping three clean sheets while also going without a goal in three matches. Their last three away games have all ended in draws, and they, like Omonia, have only three days between fixtures.

When the two clubs have met before the record is not provided, so we cannot draw on head-to-head history. Given the very similar expected goal figures and the fact that both teams have kept clean sheets and also failed to score in several recent games, the encounter is likely to be a tight affair with both sides looking for the opening goal. The recent patterns suggest a match that could see a goal from each side and perhaps a third goal from either side, matching the 3.1 goal expectation.

We back Celta to win. The price of 2.10 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives Celta about a 39 % chance of victory. The odds look attractive for a side that has been hard to beat on the road and has a slightly higher expected goal tally. For our pick to fail, Omonia would need to turn their home advantage into a clean sheet and then score at least once, while Celta would have to miss both of their chances and perhaps be undone by a defensive lapse. If the game stays tight and low-scoring, the result could still go the other way, but we feel Celta are the better bet.