How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Sparta Prague to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Ararat Armenia and 2.1 from Sparta Prague, so Sparta Prague come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sparta Prague come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sparta Prague to win. Sparta Prague shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.1), and we make them about 59% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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