How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.6 goals from Omonia Nicosia and 0.7 from Lincoln Red Imps FC, so Omonia Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Omonia Nicosia to win. Omonia Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.7), and we make them about 84% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Lincoln Red Imps FC only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 84% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
