How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
This game looks like it could be a bit one-sided, with Pafos being the stronger team. The numbers suggest they have a clear edge over Red Bull Salzburg. We think Pafos will score more goals than Red Bull Salzburg, with an expected 1.8 goals for Pafos and 0.9 for Red Bull Salzburg.
When we look at the recent games played by these teams, we see that Red Bull Salzburg are on a poor run, having lost their last 4 games. Pafos have had mixed results, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games. This pattern suggests that Pafos might have the upper hand in this match.
Our pick is for Pafos to win, and we think the price of 2.95 is a good one. We make Pafos around 62% to win, so the price looks good to us. We think taking Pafos to come out on top is the cleaner play, rather than looking for a bigger price elsewhere.
For our pick to go wrong, Red Bull Salzburg would need to turn their recent poor form around and find a way to beat Pafos. Given that Red Bull Salzburg have lost their last 4 games, this seems unlikely, but it's not impossible. We hold our view fairly strongly, but we're not saying it's a certainty.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Red Bull Salzburg a draw or better. At around 62% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
