How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from CSKA Sofia and 1.4 from Maccabi Tel Aviv, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CSKA Sofia come into this on three straight defeats. Maccabi Tel Aviv come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv to win. Maccabi Tel Aviv shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.4), and we make them about 41% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.90, which works out at about 34 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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