How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made FK Crvena Zvezda to win 39%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from FK Crvena Zvezda and 1.6 from Plzen, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FK Crvena Zvezda to win. FK Crvena Zvezda are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.6), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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