What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Kairat Almaty and 1.7 from Anderlecht, so Anderlecht come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Anderlecht come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Anderlecht to win. Anderlecht shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.7), and we make them about 51% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Kairat Almaty a draw or better. We only make this about 51%, so it's far from a lock.
