How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Trabzonspor to win 41%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper. Both sides are expected to score just over one goal each, giving a total of about two and a half goals. The numbers show almost no gap, so the match could be tight, but there is a slight edge to the home team.
Recent results give a mixed picture. Trabzonspor have only managed one win in their last five league outings, with two draws and two defeats, and they are coming off two straight draws. Ferencvarosi have won two of their last five, losing three, and have not drawn any. In their last two meetings each side has won once, and those games averaged three goals, suggesting they can find the net.
We think Trabzonspor has the better chance to take all three points. Our estimate puts their chance of winning at 42 %. The price of 1.68 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive for a simple win bet.
The pick could go wrong if the visitors manage to keep a clean sheet and score first, or if the match opens up and both teams find the net more than we expect. We are moderately confident in our view, but we know the margin is slim.
Recent meetings
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