Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb prediction

What to expect

We expect about 2.2 goals from Sunderland and 0.9 from Dinamo Zagreb, so Sunderland come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Sunderland to win. Sunderland are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-1.0), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.