Kalamata v Panathinaikos: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Panathinaikos to score 2 or fewer 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Kalamata and 1.9 from Panathinaikos, so Panathinaikos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Panathinaikos come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Panathinaikos to score 2 or fewer. This is about Panathinaikos's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 72%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.