How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Asteras Tripolis to score 1 or fewer 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from OFI Crete and 0.9 from Asteras Tripolis, so OFI Crete come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
OFI Crete come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Asteras Tripolis to score 1 or fewer. This is about Asteras Tripolis's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Asteras Tripolis have won three of the last five meetings.
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