How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Panathinaikos to score 1 or fewer 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Olympiakos and 0.7 from Panathinaikos, so Olympiakos come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Olympiakos come into this on two straight wins. Panathinaikos come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Panathinaikos to score 1 or fewer. This is about Panathinaikos's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Olympiakos have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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