PAOK v Kalamata: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made PAOK to score 2+ 72%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

PAOK host Kalamata at home in the Greek Super League on 12 October 2026. PAOK sit fourth in a 14-team table with 12 points from five matches and a +7 goal difference. One point separates them from Olympiacos above and two points separate them from Aris Thessaloniki below. Kalamata are down in 11th place with four points and a –2 goal difference. They sit one point behind Asteras Tripolis and two points ahead of Atromitos. Both teams played their last match 22 days ago, so this game could be decisive for a push up the table for PAOK and a fight for survival for Kalamata.

PAOK have been on a good run. In their last eight games they have won five, drawn two and lost one. The most recent results are a 3-1 win away at Panetolikos, a 1-0 win away at Atromitos, a 2-0 win at home against Aris, a 3-1 loss away to Panathinaikos, a 2-1 win away at Atromitos and a 4-0 win at home over Levadeiakos. They have three clean sheets in that spell, have scored 16 goals and let in eight. Their last three matches are all wins, and at home they have two wins and one draw in the same period. The run shows they can find the net and also keep opponents quiet.

Kalamata have had a mixed recent form. In their last six games they have one win, two draws and three defeats. The latest results are a 1-0 loss at home to Panathinaikos, a 1-1 draw at home with AE Larissa, a 3-1 home win over Volos NFC, a 1-1 away draw with Atromitos, a 2-0 away loss to Panetolikos and a 3-2 home loss to Aris. They have scored seven goals and conceded nine in those six games, failing to score in two of them. Four of the six matches featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in four of those games. The recent win over Volos shows they can produce goals, but the overall record is uneven.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have often produced several goals with both sides finding the net. That pattern fits the current numbers, which suggest an open match with chances at both ends. PAOK are expected to score 2.7 goals on average, while Kalamata average 0.8. The chance of PAOK scoring at all is very high, and the chance of them scoring twice or more is also strong. Kalamata have about a 51 % chance to score and only a small chance to score twice. The statistics point to a game where PAOK will likely dominate the scoring.

Our pick is PAOK to score two or more goals. We think the price of 1.29 is shorter than our reading of the game, so it looks attractive. We estimate a 72 % chance that PAOK will hit the two-goal mark, based on their recent form and the goal expectations. For the pick to fail, PAOK would need to be held to a single goal or kept scoreless, which would require a very tight defensive display from Kalamata that has not been common in their recent games. All things considered, we feel confident in backing PAOK to find the net at least twice.