What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Volos NFC and 1.7 from Olympiakos, so Olympiakos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Olympiakos to win. Olympiakos shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.7), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Volos NFC a draw or better. At around 70% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
