How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Debrecen to win 43%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Debrecen and 1.4 from Vasas Budapest, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Debrecen to win. Debrecen are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.4), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Debrecen have won two of the last three meetings, with one drawn.
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