How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Paksi SE to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Kisvárda and 1.6 from Paksi SE, so Paksi SE come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Paksi SE to win. Paksi SE shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.6), and we make them about 42% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Paksi SE have won four of the last five meetings.
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