How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Újpest to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Újpest and 1.3 from Zalaegerszeg, so Újpest come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Újpest to win. Újpest are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.86, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Zalaegerszeg have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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