Puskás FC Academy v Kispest Honvéd: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Puskás FC Academy to win 53%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Puskás FC Academy host Kispest Honvéd at their home ground in the Hungary NB I on 18 September 2026. Puskás sit top of the 12-team table with 12 points from seven matches and a +1 goal difference. They are sitting in a Euro-qualification spot. Honvéd are down at the bottom, 12th with six points from six games and a –1 goal difference, already in the relegation zone. A win for the visitors would lift them just one place, but a loss could seal their fate. For Puskás a victory would extend their lead at the summit and keep the title race alive.

Puskás have been steady this season. In their last three fixtures they beat Györi ETO 2-1, drew 1-1 with Zalaegerszeg and then won 3-0 against Békéscsaba. Those results give them five points from a possible six and three goals scored while conceding only two. The run shows they can find the net and also keep a clean sheet when they need to.

Honvéd have struggled to find form. Their recent games include a 0-3 loss to Celtic, a 1-4 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock and a 0-2 loss to Debrecen. The last match ended 0-2 and left them without a goal for the third game in a row. They have only managed one goal in those three outings while concedting nine. The string of heavy defeats highlights a defensive frailty and a lack of firepower.

The two sides have met before, but the history does not give a clear pattern for this clash. Both teams have shown the ability to score, yet Honvéd have been unable to break down stronger opponents lately. Puskás, with a better defensive record in recent games, are likely to dominate possession and create more chances. We expect a game where the home side controls the tempo and looks to exploit the visitors’ defensive weaknesses.

We pick Puskás FC Academy to win. The numbers put Puskás at about 1.7 goals per game versus Honvéd’s 1.1, and they have an 84 % chance to score at least once. Our own reading gives them a 53 % chance of victory, which matches the price of 2.15. The price is longer than we think the game is worth, so it looks attractive. For the pick to go wrong Honvéd would need to find a way to score early and then hold firm, something they have not done in their last three matches. If they manage to keep a clean sheet and snatch a goal, the upset could happen, but the balance still favours Puskás.