How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Breiðablik (Draw No Bet) 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Breiðablik and 1.5 from Stjarnan, so Breiðablik come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Breiðablik (Draw No Bet). Breiðablik are favoured here (xG 2.3-1.5), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Breiðablik defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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