How it turned out
We projected about 4.6 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Víkingur Reykjavík (Draw No Bet) 63%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
KR Reykjavík host Víkingur Reykjavík in the Iceland Besta deildin. The numbers show Víkingur as the stronger side, with an expectation of almost three goals for them and just under two for KR. That points to an open game with chances at both ends. Both teams should be looking to create scoring opportunities, so we can expect a lively match rather than a defensive slog.
Our pick is Víkingur Reykjavík on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.63 sits close to our own reading of the game, and we feel it reflects the advantage Víkingur have. With a 63 % chance of success, the bet gives us a safety net – if the match ends level our stake is returned, and only a loss for Víkingur would hurt us.
For the pick to go wrong, KR Reykjavík would need to either keep a clean sheet or score enough to hold Víkingur to a draw. A very tight defensive display from KR or a sudden loss of form from Víkingur could swing the result. We hold our view fairly strongly; the odds match our expectation and the goal forecasts favor Víkingur, so we are comfortable with the selection.
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