How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FH Hafnarfjörður to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from FH Hafnarfjörður and 1.3 from Keflavík, so FH Hafnarfjörður come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FH Hafnarfjörður to win. FH Hafnarfjörður are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.3), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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