How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Valur (Draw No Bet) 63%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Valur and 1.4 from ÍA Akranes, so Valur come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Valur (Draw No Bet). Valur are favoured here (xG 2.4-1.4), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Valur defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.81, which works out at about 55 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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