How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (Draw No Bet) 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar and 1.0 from Thór Akureyri, so ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (Draw No Bet). ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar are favoured here (xG 2.0-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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