What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from ÍA Akranes and 2.4 from KR Reykjavík, so KR Reykjavík come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 4.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: KR Reykjavík to win. KR Reykjavík shade this one on the numbers (xG 2.1-2.4), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for ÍA Akranes to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 45%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
