How it turned out
We projected about 4.5 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made KR Reykjavík to win 44%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from ÍA Akranes and 2.4 from KR Reykjavík, so KR Reykjavík come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 4.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: KR Reykjavík to win. KR Reykjavík shade this one on the numbers (xG 2.1-2.4), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.87, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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