How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Stjarnan to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Stjarnan and 1.2 from ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar, so Stjarnan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Stjarnan to win. Stjarnan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.2), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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