What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from KA Akureyri and 1.9 from Breiðablik, so Breiðablik come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Breiðablik come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Breiðablik to win. Breiðablik shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.9), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
KA Akureyri only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 44%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
