How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Breiðablik to win 42%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from KA Akureyri and 1.9 from Breiðablik, so Breiðablik come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
KA Akureyri come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Breiðablik to win. Breiðablik shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.9), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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