What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Thór Akureyri and 1.7 from FH Hafnarfjörður, so FH Hafnarfjörður come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FH Hafnarfjörður to win. FH Hafnarfjörður shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.7), and we make them about 47% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Thór Akureyri only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 47% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
