What to expect
We expect about 2.8 goals from Víkingur Reykjavík and 1.2 from Valur, so Víkingur Reykjavík come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Víkingur Reykjavík to win. Víkingur Reykjavík are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.8-1.2), and we make them about 72% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Valur a draw or better. We make it about 72% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
