Austria v Kosovo: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Austria to win 61%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Austria host Kosovo in a UEFA Nations League clash on 27 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their group, but the numbers show Austria as the clear favourite. They are expected to score almost two goals on average, while Kosovo average just under one. A win for Austria would push them a step closer to the top spots, and a loss would leave Kosovo hanging near the bottom. The stakes are mainly about moving up the table and keeping the pressure on the other sides.

We back Austria to win. The price of 1.60 matches our view of the game. Our own chance of an Austrian victory sits at about 62 percent, which fits the statistical edge we see. Austria are likely to find the net, given an 86 % chance they will score at all and a 57 % chance they will score twice. Kosovo do have a decent chance to get on the scoresheet, but only 22 % of the time will they hit twice. If Austria fail to break down a very tight defence or miss a clear chance, the result could be tighter than we expect, but the odds still favour the home side.