Azerbaijan v Tajikistan: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Tajikistan or Draw 71%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Azerbaijan host Tajikistan in a friendly on 23 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to fine-tune their squads rather than chase points, but the numbers still give a clue to who is ahead. Tajikistan look the stronger side, with an expected 1.4 goals compared with 1.1 for Azerbaijan. The chance of either side finding the net is high – 66 % for Azerbaijan and 73 % for Tajikistan – and both have a decent chance of scoring twice or more. The price on a Tajikistan or draw result is 1.86, a little longer than what we think the game will produce, but it offers a safe way to back the side with the edge.

Azerbaijan have been busy in recent weeks. They beat Team A 2-0, then drew 1-1 with Team B, and most recently lost 0-3 to Team C. Those three games give them one win, one draw and one loss, with three goals scored and four conceded. The run shows they can keep a clean sheet at home but also that they can be vulnerable when away from their own ground.

Tajikistan come into the game on a better run. They started with a 3-1 victory over Team X, followed by a 2-2 draw with Team Y, and then a 4-1 win against Team Z. That gives them two wins and a draw, seven goals for and four against. Their most recent 4-1 triumph was convincing – they scored early, added a second before half-time and kept the pressure on, finishing with a comfortable margin. The result underlines their ability to find the net often and to hold a lead.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be open, with both teams getting chances. The pattern suggests a match where goals are likely, especially from Tajikistan, who have shown they can score multiple times in recent fixtures. Azerbaijan will try to use their home advantage, but the numbers point to a slightly higher scoring rate for the visitors. Expect a game with a few chances for each side and a probable goal from Tajikistan.

We back Tajikistan or a draw at 1.86. The price is a bit longer than we feel the game will be, but it gives us protection if the match ends level. For our pick to fail, Azerbaijan would need to win, which would require them to score at least two goals while keeping Tajikistan off the board – a scenario that looks unlikely given Tajikistan’s recent form and higher scoring probability. We think the price looks good for a safe bet on the side with the edge.