What to expect
Gibraltar host São Tomé and Príncipe in a friendly on 23 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to give players a chance to prove themselves, so the result will not affect any qualification race. The game will be played in Gibraltar, giving the home side the familiar surroundings and the support of their fans. On paper Gibraltar look the stronger side. Their expected goal tally is 1.7 compared with 1.4 for São Tomé and Príncipe, and the combined total of 3.1 goals suggests an open contest with chances at both ends. Gibraltar have an 84 % chance of finding the net at least once and a 53 % chance of scoring twice or more. São Tomé and Príncipe are also likely to hit the target, with a 72 % chance of scoring and a 36 % chance of getting two goals. The numbers point to a match where both teams will push forward and look for opportunities, rather than sit back and defend.
Our pick is Gibraltar or a draw. We price it at 1.33 and think the chance of this outcome happening is about 75 %. Backing Gibraltar or the draw gives a safety net – if the home side wins it is a win for us, and if the game ends level we are still covered. The price is short, meaning we do not need the exact score, just the result staying on Gibraltar’s side of the ledger. For the pick to go wrong, Gibraltar would have to lose, which the data says is unlikely. The odds of a loss are low, and the expected goal figures favour the hosts, so we feel comfortable with this selection.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →