How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Montserrat to win 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Turks and Caicos Islands host Montserrat in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 23 September 2026. Both teams sit in the lower half of the table, but the numbers show a clear gap. Montserrat are expected to score more, with an average of 2.0 goals compared with 1.3 for the home side. The odds suggest an open game, with chances likely at both ends. A win for Montserrat would push them a step closer to climbing out of the relegation zone, while a draw would keep Turks and Caicos Islands in the hunt for a late surge.
We back Montserrat to win. The price of 1.12 is shorter than what we think the match will deliver, which makes the bet look attractive. Our own view puts Montserrat’s chance of victory at about 57 %, roughly 58 % when rounded, reflecting their stronger scoring odds – 88 % they will score at all and 60 % they will hit twice or more. For the pick to go wrong, Turks and Caicos would need to find the net twice and keep Montserrat to a single goal, something the statistics make unlikely. All signs point to Montserrat edging it, and the price looks good for a straightforward bet.
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