How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Paraguay or Draw 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Bolivia host Paraguay in a friendly at La Paz on 27 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to fine-tune their squads ahead of the next competitive window, so the result will not affect any qualification hopes. In the unofficial ranking of the two, Paraguay sit a step above Bolivia, and the numbers we have suggest Paraguay are the stronger side. The game offers a chance for Bolivia to prove they can score against a side that is expected to find the net more often, while Paraguay will look to keep their scoring momentum alive.
Bolivia have been in mixed form over their last few outings. They began with a 2-1 win over Ecuador, then slipped to a 1-0 defeat at home to Colombia. Their most recent friendly ended in a 0-0 draw with Uruguay. Across those three games they have scored three goals and conceded two. The pattern shows a side that can create chances but struggles to keep clean sheets, especially against higher-rated opposition.
Paraguay’s recent schedule has been more productive. They opened with a convincing 3-0 victory over Chile, followed by a 2-1 win against Peru. Their latest friendly saw them beat Venezuela 2-0, a match in which they dominated possession and finished with a comfortable margin. That 2-0 win highlights their ability to score twice and keep a clean sheet, reinforcing the view that they are comfortable finding the net and protecting their lead.
When the two nations have met before, the games have tended to be open and produce a few goals. The historical pattern, combined with the current expectations of 0.9 goals for Bolivia and 1.4 for Paraguay, points to a low-scoring encounter with both sides likely to get on the scoresheet. Bolivia have a 57 % chance of scoring at least once and a 20 % chance of scoring twice, while Paraguay enjoy a 75 % chance of scoring and a 39 % chance of hitting the net twice. The odds suggest a match where Paraguay may edge ahead, but a draw remains a realistic outcome if Bolivia manage to hold firm.
Our pick is Paraguay or Draw at 1.12. The price is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so we back the lean with a safety net that covers a draw as well. We think the chance of this selection being right sits around 78 %. For it to go wrong, Bolivia would need to score two or more goals while keeping Paraguay from finding the net, or Paraguay would have to be shut out completely. Either scenario looks unlikely given the scoring probabilities, making the pick a sensible way to back the stronger side without demanding an exact scoreline.
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