British Virgin Islands v Montserrat: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made British Virgin Islands or Draw 67%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

British Virgin Islands host Montserrat in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on the first of October. Both teams sit in the lower half of the table, each fighting to avoid the drop zone. The points are tight, and a single result can move one side a place up while pushing the other further down. In the league’s scoring picture the two sides are almost identical – the British Virgin Islands are expected to score 1.4 goals, Montserrat 1.5, for a total of just under three goals in the game. The odds are close, and the price on a British Virgin Islands win or a draw sits at 3.70, a little longer than what we feel the match will produce.

When these two have met before the games have been tight affairs, with both sides finding the net but rarely breaking away. The chances of each team scoring at least once are high – 78 per cent for the British Virgin Islands and 76 per cent for Montserrat. Both also have a decent probability of scoring twice or more, 44 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. That tells us the match is likely to see goals from both sides, but not a flood of them. Expect a balanced contest, with each side looking to take the lead but also wary of conceding. The pattern suggests a game that will stay close to the line, perhaps ending in a one-goal win for the hosts or a draw.

We back the British Virgin Islands or a draw. The price of 3.70 gives us a wider safety net than a straight win bet, and we think it is a sensible way to back the slight edge the home side have without needing the exact scoreline. Our chance that this outcome will happen sits at 67 per cent, which matches the high likelihood of both teams scoring and the overall tightness of the fixture. For the pick to go wrong, Montserrat would need to win outright, which would require them to out-score the hosts by at least one goal – a scenario that looks less likely given the almost equal expected goal totals. If the game stays as close as the numbers suggest, the British Virgin Islands or a draw should be the result that pays.